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Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-23T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29715/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T21:01Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
ME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-03-23 03:19
 - Time at C2: 2024-03-23 01:25
 - Radial speed: 1613.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: N22W02
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: X1.1 (N27E08). Peak at 2024-03-23 00:58
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 880.88 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-03-24 21:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.60 hours)
Lead Time: 16.15 hour(s)
Difference: -6.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-03-23T22:01Z
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